Can A Hurricane Hit Arizona?

While Arizona might be a desert state, it’s not immune to the impacts of tropical storms and hurricanes. Although rare, remnants of these systems can bring significant rainfall and flooding to the state.

Historical Impact

Since 1926, Arizona has experienced 11 storms that produced over 6.25 inches of rainfall, leading to severe flooding. Interestingly, seven of these storms had names beginning with the letter “N”:

This pattern is purely coincidental, and the next named storm, Nadine, has a very low probability of impacting Arizona.

How Hurricanes Form:

Hurricanes require a specific set of conditions to develop:

• Pre-existing weather disturbance: Often a tropical wave.
• Warm water: At least 26.5 degrees Celsius (80 degrees Fahrenheit) over a depth of 50 meters.
• Thunderstorm activity: Converts ocean heat into energy for the storm.
• Low wind shear: Minimal difference in wind speed and direction near the storm.

Even with these factors in place, hurricane development is not guaranteed.

Potential Impacts on Arizona

If a tropical storm were to form and affect Arizona, it would likely originate in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Mexico. While the average frequency of heavy precipitation events from tropical systems is about every nine years, predicting their path and intensity remains a challenge.

Past Damage

Hurricane Norbert in 2014 caused an estimated $18 million in property damage in Arizona due to flooding, along with substantial vehicle damage and business losses. Tragically, two fatalities were also reported.

Our Take

Although hurricanes directly hitting Arizona are rare, the state has experienced significant impacts from their remnants. These events highlight the importance of preparedness and understanding the potential risks associated with tropical weather systems, even in desert regions.